Why the recent retail rally will be short-lived: Technician – CNBC

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Suddenly, retail stocks are back in fashion, but one technician warns investors shouldn’t buy into the recent trend.

Retail names climbed Monday after posting their best week of the year Friday. The XRT Retail ETF is now up nearly 6 percent this month, but Matt Maley of Miller Tabak says if history is any indication the group is about to take another downturn.

“[The XRT] has gotten [to the 200-day moving average] a couple of times this year only to roll over in a significant manner,” he said Friday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.” “So part of this rallying seems to be short covering, where a lot of names have been beaten down badly or are starting to bounce back, but I’m not sure those rallies can really last for very long.”

Indeed a number of laggards in the group have seen somewhat of a resurgence of late. Names like Foot Locker, J.C. Penney, Dick’s Sporting Goods and Macy’s have rallied a respective 32, 17, 17 and 9 percent in November. All of those companies, however, are still hovering near 52-week lows.

Adding to Maley’s doubt is the seasonal patterns that he has seen in the space. According to Maley, typically retail stocks rally in October through November, only to start falling right after Black Friday.

Mark Tepper, CEO of Strategic Wealth Partners, also doubts the retail renaissance is here to stay. While Tepper sees the strength of consumer, unemployment and wage data favoring retailers for the time being, he believes the presence of Amazon will still continue to weigh on traditional names.

“The retail environment is very challenging as the brick-and-mortar businesses are getting crushed by Amazon,” he said on “Trading Nation.” “So I think what you’re going to see over the course of the next few years is the extinction of the dinosaurs, like Macy’s, the companies that have absolutely no value proposition whatsoever other than being the low-cost provider.”

The one retail name Tepper would buy at this time is Wal-Mart, given its efforts and capabilities to innovate in an online space.

Though retail stocks were tracking higher Monday, the group is still down more than 5 percent this year.

Not a Scientific Survey. Results may not total 100% due to rounding.

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Brian Sullivan is co-anchor of CNBC’s “Power Lunch” (M-F,1PM-3PM ET), one of the network’s longest running programs, as well as the host of the daily investing program “Trading Nation.” He is also a frequent guest on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” and other NBC properties.


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