The threat of Isil remains –

Moreover, Isil’s fate will have a knock-on effect on the rest of the
region in 2015, particularly in North Africa, where groups of Islamist
fanatics in countries like Libya and Algeria are likely to continue their
attempts to replicate Isil’s successes in Syria and Iraq.

In Egypt, the overthrow of the Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamic party that
seized power after the overthrow of Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak in 2011,
has brought a certain degree of stability to North Africa’s most dominant
power, and helped to bring greater security to Egypt and the wider region,
including the all-important Sinai peninsula, which is vital to reviving
Egypt’s flagging tourism industry.

The other important factor for maintaining peace in the eastern Mediterranean
is whether there is likely to be progress in the stalled negotiations
between Israel and the Arabs over the creation of an independent Palestinian
state in the West Bank and Gaza, territory that has been occupied by Israel
since the 1967 Six-Day War. Here the omens do not bode well.

The failure of talks earlier in 2014 led to increased acts of violence,
including the murder of four worshippers at a Jerusalem synagogue and the
likelihood in 2015 is that, so long as negotiations remain stalled, more
random acts of violence can be expected.

More political predictions for 2015:

Why the Tories’ Dr No may get a big yes in
2015 »

US politics: Barack Obama at bay »

Russian politics: The year that reality
bites in Ukraine »


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